Research reports- Fintech
Airtel Money: Unlocking fintech value in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Airtel Money operates in 14 countries with 44.6mn users and US$136bn annual transaction value, capturing 21% of regional volume.
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FY 2025 revenue reached US$994mn (+19% yoy), with EBITDA of US$525mn (+20%) and the EBITDA margin expanding 66bps to 52.8%.
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Valuation estimates range from US$4.1 - 7.5bn, based on peer multiples and prior funding rounds. An IPO is targeted for H1 2026.
Please see the Important Information at the end of this report.
Airtel Money has established itself as one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s leading mobile money platforms. Launched in 2010, it now operates across 14 countries, serving 44.6mn customers and processing over US$136bn in annual transaction value (+32% yoy). The company has built a strong distribution network of 1.7mn agents, while rapidly scaling digital adoption via the MyAirtel app.
Currently, Airtel Money commands 21% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile money market by transaction volume, and 12% by transaction value, trailing M-PESA and MTN MoMo, but growing rapidly. Airtel’s lower unit transaction value is due to its focus on low-income, high-frequency users and a zero-fee strategy on Airtel-to-Airtel transfers. As one of Airtel Africa’s fastest-growing verticals, Airtel Money is well-positioned to become a central pillar of the region’s digital economy.
In FY 2025 (March year-end), Airtel Money posted robust financial performance, with revenue reaching US$994mn (+19% yoy) and ARPU rising to US$2.0 (+11% yoy). EBITDA grew to US$525mn (+20% yoy) with an impressive EBITDA margin of 52.8% (+66 bps yoy). The main cost areas are transaction processing, marketing, and regulatory compliance, with the latter particularly likely giving benefits of scale.
Airtel Money’s valuation has strengthened meaningfully since its last funding round in 2021, which valued the business at US$2.7bn. With revenue up 148% over the past four years and EBITDA margins above 50%, recent peer transactions such as MTN MoMo’s US$5.2bn valuation support a current equity value estimate in the range of US$4.1 - 7.5bn ahead of its planned IPO in H1 2026.
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The inam EM Fintech Index: A year of rotation, rebounds and re-rating risk
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Our equally-weighted index now covers 140 listed fintechs worth over US$600bn. Exposure to Software and Payments fintechs has grown
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In H1 25, East Asia fintechs outperformed those in India, and Digital Banks generated better returns than Investechs
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Despite their strong potential, EM fintechs trade at a 11% PE discount to the S&P 500. We see scope for a re-rating in select pockets
Please see the Important Information at the end of this report.
inam’s EM Fintech Index is up 10% ytd in US$ terms, marking a clear shift in sentiment after a flat start to this year. The rally has been driven by easing macro concerns, selective EM inflows and a sharp mid-April rebound following the Trump administration’s reversal on US tariff policy. This performance also stands out relative to global benchmarks, with the S&P 500 up around 5% ytd. Our index now tracks 140 listed fintechs across 30+ countries, with a combined market cap of US$613bn, and remains heavily weighted toward Payments and Software fintechs.
Performance has diverged sharply across geographies and subsectors. Regionally, East Asia (primarily South Korea and Taiwan) leads ytd with resilient profitability and strong price momentum, with KakaoBank (Digital Bank) and LINE Pay (Payments) shares rising strongly. India, last year’s outperformer, now lags on weak sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty; PB Fintech (Lending) and Jio Financial Services (Lending) have seen meaningful price declines. Latin America has rebounded on strong revenue delivery (Nu Holdings has notably benefitted from this trend), while China has staged a partial recovery amid regulatory stabilisation with Futu Holdings (Investechs) and Hundsun Technologies (Software) shares being particularly strong.
By activity, Digital Banks and Lending platforms have gained ground thanks to improved scale and visibility. Despite leading the index on profitability margins and top line growth expectations, Investechs have lagged so far this year. This likely reflects positioning fatigue after strong H2 24 gains, as well as limited excitement around near-term catalysts, especially in markets where retail penetration is already high and incremental monetisation is harder to surprise on.
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• GCash is the Philippines’ dominant fintech, providing digital payments services to 80% of the population (94mn+ registered users)
• We estimate GCash’s 2024 Gross Transaction Value (GTV) at PHP12tn (c.45% of GDP), with a double-digit net profit margin
• Comparable EM M&A transactions point to a US$7-8bn valuation. Listed EM peer multiples imply a more modest US$4-6bn
Please see the Important Information at the end of this report.
GCash, Globe Telecom’s fintech arm, has cemented its position as the dominant fintech platform in the Philippines, underpinned by first-mover advantage, strategic partnerships and deep integration across the digital payments ecosystem. As of 2024, the platform boasts 94mn+ registered users (ie over 80% of the population, 81mn of whom are active), with a speculative GTV around PHP12tn (inam estimates). This would be equivalent to 45% of the country’s nominal GDP or 50% of total final consumption expenditure, having trebled since 2021. Notably, the absolute size of GCash’s user base is now comparable to leading emerging market fintech platforms such as Paytm in India (96mn users), M-Peas in Kenya (66mn), pan-African MTM MoMo (63mn) and Egypt’s Fawry (53mn).
Press reports indicate shareholders are targeting an US$8bn valuation, implying a 2024 PE multiple of 44.5x, for an expected upcoming IPO through capital raising. We note that August 2024 shareholder transactions valued the business at around US$5bn.
While comparable EM M&A transactions support a GCash valuation range of US$7-8bn, valuation benchmarks from listed EM fintech peers point to a more modest US$4-6bn. While the IPO timeline remains unconfirmed, PSE President Ramon Monzon previously pointed to a Q4 25 listing. Mynt’s CEO, Martha Sazon, has reaffirmed the PSE as the preferred venue, with a dual listing under review. Key risks include IPO execution hurdles, rising competition from banks and digital-native players, and cybersecurity threats.
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GCash: Digitally scaling the Philippine economy, IPO on the horizon
VEON: Jazzcash is grabbing Pakistan’s fintech opportunity
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Business overview: Jazzcash is Pakistan’s leading mobile wallet, offering P2P transfers, bill payments and microloans
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Growth and margins: 70% yoy revenue growth in Q3 24 was driven by higher transaction activity. EBITDA margin was 39.5%
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Valuation: Peer company multiples point to a potential valuation range of US$387mn to US$617mn, based on Q3 24 metrics.
Please see the Important Information at the end of this report.
Jazzcash is one of the leading fintech's in Pakistan, with clear scale advantages in mobile payments and an active microloans programme. It benefits from its close links with Jazz, the country’s leading telecom services provider, which gives access to a large in-house customer base and an extensive agents network. Jazzcash is seeing strong, profitable growth. Given poor financial inclusion rates in Pakistan, the market opportunity is huge. Listed peers and prior transactions point to a cUS$600mn valuation for the business. Using Q3 2024 financial metrics and comparative valuations from listed peers, we estimate JazzCash's value to range from US$387 million (based on EV/EBITDA multiples) to US$618 million (based on EV/revenue multiples). The upper limit of our valuation implies that JazzCash represents 18% of VEON’s current market capitalization.
Company overview
Jazzcash, one of Pakistan's pioneering digital financial services platforms, has established itself as a market leader in the country's rapidly evolving fintech ecosystem. It was launched in 2012 as a joint initiative by Jazz, Pakistan’s largest telecommunications provider, and its parent VEON, the international telecommunications and digital services group. Jazzcash’s primary revenue sources include interest income, fees, commission and brokerage income.
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Kaspi signals its ambition to move into Uzbekistan
• Kaspi aims to acquire leading Uzbek payments platform, Humo, to expand its fintech footprint in Central Asia
• Humo reported a US$11mn top line in Q2 24, up 52% yoy. Kaspi could drive meaningful revenue and cost synergies
• Listed peers point to a US$80mn+ Humo valuation. Synergies, scarcity and its strong market presence could drive a premium
Please see the Important Information at the end of this report.
Kaspi is Central Asia’s leading fintech, with a top line of US$4.2bn in 2023 (+51% yoy) and a market capitalisation of US$22.7bn. It recently confirmed its interest to purchase Humo, the Uzbek payments platform that is being privatised. In this note we take a look at what Humo does, why a marriage with Kaspi could make sense, and what the potential transaction value would be. We also consider the potential implications for Kaspi shareholders.
Kaspi: Broad-based growth drove a 25% rise in Q2 24 profit Kaspi operates the largest consumer-focused ecosystem in Kazakhstan through a two-sided super app business model. Its offerings include fintech (car finance, buy now pay later, merchant and micro finance), online marketplaces (travel, e-commerce, postomats and m-commerce) and payments (B2B, P2P and household bill payments). The company reported revenue of KZT599bn in Q2 24, (US$1.2bn, +36% yoy in KZT) and net income of KZT243bn (US$500mn, +25% yoy). Half of the company’s revenue comes from the fintech division, followed by the marketplace with 27% of the top line and payments services making up the remainder. In Q2 24, the fintech platform reported revenue of KZT307bn (US$636mn, +23% yoy in KZT), with a 26% increase in average savings balances and 42% yoy growth in the average net loan portfolio. Marketplace reported revenues of KZT169bn (US$350mn, +96% yoy), with GMV reaching KZT1.4tn (+62% yoy) and the take rate at an all-time high of 9.5%. This strong growth was largely driven by the the e-commerce and m-commerce segments. E-commerce GMV surged 113% yoy to KZT610bn,
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Introducing inam’s EM fintech index
• Our US$-based EM fintech index tracks the performance of 116 listed fintech companies across 22 emerging markets
• With a combined market cap of US$465bn+, our universe captures a wide variety of products and business models
• Africa and lending fintechs have outperformed so far this year. While Southeast Asia and software fintechs have lagged
Please see the Important Information at the end of this report.
The universe; inam’s EM fintech landscape
We track the US$ performance of 116 listed emerging market fintechs operating from Argentina to Philippines. These firms have a broad spread of activities, ranging from payments to financial software, lending and investment. Payments is the biggest subsector, with firms such as Argentina’s Mercado Libre and South Africa’s Naspers representing one-third of constituents and 44% of overall index market capitalisation. Software providers (such as India’s Oracle Financial Services Software and China’s Hundsun Technologies) are the next largest segment by number of constituents (22%), but their market cap contribution is just 8%. In contrast, digital banks make up just 6% of the number of constituents but 16% of market cap, due to large-scale players such as Brazil’s Nu Holdings and Poland’s mBank.